Romeo, Romeo, Wherefor art thy brains, Romeo

» Posted by Dave on September 10, 2008«

Romeo Crennel made a ridiculous coaching decision on Sunday. Trailing by 21 points with just over 10 minutes to go, Crennel's Browns faced a 4th and 3 at the Cowboys' 20 yard line. Crennel opted to kick a field goal, which Phil Dawson made, cutting the deficit to 18 points (28-10).

"We still had 10 minutes to go. A lot of things can happen. If you don't make it, then where do you go?" Crennel said.

Well, we think a lot of Browns fans would like to tell Crennel where to go. Crennel decided that it would be a good idea to, down by three scores remain down by three scores and voluntarily give up the ball (on the kickoff; we are assuming a regular, not onside, kick---which is what Crennel did).

We looked at all games in the past 6 years where a team had the ball in the 4th quarter with a three score lead. Predictably, the results are pretty bad for the team that is losing. If this situation happens with between 10 and 11 minutes left, which is the situation the Browns were in, the team with the ball and the three score lead won ONE game out of 226 games where this situation occurred.

Looking more closely at this one game, it was Seattle at Baltimore from 2003. The Seahawks led 41-24 with over 13 minutes left and had the ball, which they held for several minutes, punted to the Ravens, who punted back! The Seahawks then had the ball from the 9 minute mark to just under 7 minutes...with a 17 point lead! The Ravens scored on a blocked punt return with 6:41 to go, then recovered a fumble and scored with just over a minute to go. However, the Seahawks got the ball back with 1:11 to go, and the Ravens having two time outs. Clearly, the game is basically over here---the Hawks can run three plays and take about 1 minute off the clock. Here is the play by play:

1-10-BAL 42 (1:11) S.Alexander up the middle to BAL 36 for 6 yards (R.Lewis).

Timeout #2 by BAL at 01:04.

2-4-BAL 36 (1:03) S.Alexander right guard to BAL 33 for 3 yards (K.Gregg).

3-1-BAL 33 (:58) S.Alexander left tackle to BAL 33 for no gain (G.Baxter, E.Hartwell).

Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:44.

4-1-BAL 33 (:44) M.Hasselbeck up the middle to BAL 33 for no gain (M.Douglas, O.Brown).

Why did the clock only run 5 seconds after second down? Well, of course, because Referee Tom White screwed up. They called an incorrect penalty on Seattle, figured out they screwed up, but then forgot to start the clock. White's crew was fined half a game check by the NFL. See Tom White's profile. Man, it must stink to be an official and have your Wikipedia page talk only about the worst rule mistake you ever made.

Incidentally, this game possibly cost the Bengals the playoffs. Anyways, we digress---the point is that if this is the kind of thing Crennel had in his mind when he opted for the FG...well, he's a pretty creative guy. Clearly, going for the first down---and going for a TD to make it a two-score game was the right play.